The narrative of newfound parity has been a Women’s World Cup staple for as long as many around soccer can remember. It bubbles up every four years to manufacture intrigue. Experts tell casual fans that “the world is catching up,” that investment in the women’s game is paying dividends, that the gap between haves and have nots is narrowing. And for most of the 21st century, it’s been wrong.
Or, rather, it’s been incomplete and deceptive. Yes, the sleeping giants of international women’s soccer have been waking up and improving. But so have the traditional powers — most notably the United States — at an arguably even steeper rate.
So no, the gap between the U.S. and Central American minnows hasn’t shrunk. Germany, nowadays, is no less likely to pummel Latvia or Bulgaria. Brazil still bosses South America. None of that has changed.
What’s changed, though, in the very recent past, is the depth of the top tier — of the true Women’s World Cup contenders.
There are 11 of them in 2023, 11 teams that could realistically travel to Australia and New Zealand this month and return with a trophy (or, in Australia’s case, celebrate on home soil) in late August. They hail from five different continents, and speak eight different languages, and comprise the most unpredictable Women’s World Cup field ever.
What makes this ninth edition so enticing is that not a single one of the 11 has separated itself from the pack. The reigning World Cup champ and reigning European champ have both been rattled by injuries. Two of Europe’s other immensely talented teams have been rocked by coach-created chaos. The reigning Olympic gold medalists, meanwhile, have been fighting with their soccer federation, which is teetering on the brink of bankruptcy.
So the door is open. A first-time winner could step through it. Below, we’ll rank the contenders from most to least likely champion — but this exercise, in 2023 more so than ever before, is admittedly a crapshoot.
(Numbers in parentheses are a team’s FIFA ranking and its BetMGM title odds.)
2023 Women’s World Cup contenders, ranked
1. United States (FIFA: 1 | +225)
We’ll go with the U.S. at No. 1 almost by default, just like betting markets and the general public have. But that’s not to say this team is in a good place relative to past iterations. It’s a shell of its 2017-2021 self, with more injuries and holes than young stars emerging to fill them. We explained all that and more in our all-encompassing USWNT World Cup preview.
Spain would occupy the top spot in these rankings if not for two hindrances:
A) Its best player, Alexia Putellas, the back-to-back Ballon d’Or winner, is still working her way back from a torn ACL last summer.
B) Its coach, Jorge Vilda, is unqualified, overmatched and seemingly resented by many key players — so resented that 15 of them resigned from national team duty last fall. (The players never publicly called for Vilda’s ouster, but cited the environment he’d created and working conditions that had harmed their health.)
Only three of those players will be at the World Cup. Some, including Mapi Leon and Patri Guijarro, will skip it by choice. Others have been replaced, at Vilda’s retribution-tinged discretion.
Despite all of that, Spain probably has the most talented squad of the 32. It has the core of the Barcelona team that currently rules women’s club soccer. It has begun to produce an endless stream of players whose technical and tactical capacities far exceed most of their American peers.
But its major tournament history is underwhelming at best. It could win the World Cup, but just as easily could crumble.
Twelve months ago, all signs pointed to England entering this World Cup as the favorite. The Lionesses stormed to their first major trophy at Euro 2022, and took down (or even demolished) other European giants in the process.
What we all probably underestimated, though, was how forceful and influential the wave of support that swept up the entire nation truly was. England rode it to victory. In recent friendlies, on the other hand, a wounded team has come back down to Earth. Without winger Beth Mead and playmaker Fran Kirby, among others, the Lionesses have lacked bite in warmups against Portugal and Australia. They’ll travel to Oceania having scored just once in their last 270 minutes — which isn’t cause for alarm, but is cause for concern.
France’s golden generation had its golden opportunity in 2019 on home soil, and succumbed to Megan Rapinoe and the vaunted U.S.
Four years later, Les Bleues are not quite as talented. They’re also half a world away. But, on the plus side, they parted with head coach Corinne Diacre — after prominent players, including Wendie Renard, resigned to force a change.
To replace Diacre, the French Football Federation — which, in general, has been a bungling, misogynistic mess lately — hired Hervé Renard (no relation to Wendie), who instantly became one of this World Cup’s biggest wild cards. He has no experience in women’s soccer, but a strong record in the men’s international game. If he can just be uncontroversial and competent, France has a shot.
Germany is European soccer’s Old Reliable. Save for a few forgivable Olympic qualification failures, it has entered every major tournament since the World Cup’s inception as a legitimate contender. Over the past decade, however, it has been usurped by the women’s game’s shiny new objects. And 2023 looks primed to continue that trend.
The Germans have a diverse range of talent. They have a legendary coach. But they have nothing, no single attribute, that stands tall above this field of foes. They recently lost to Brazil and drew with Sweden. Their B-team’s 2-1 win over lowly Vietnam last month was uninspiring. They have few glaring flaws, but haven’t provided much reason for firm optimism either.
6. Australia (FIFA: 10 | +1000)
Australia isn’t the sixth-best team at this World Cup. On paper, its roster is worse now than in 2019. But can’t you feel it? That giddy excitement, that stirring hope, that powerful wave that swept up England last summer and changed the sport (and the world) for good
It’s coming Down Under this summer. It already sold out the opener at 82,500-seat Stadium Australia, according to organizers. And the Matildas, as the Aussie women’s national team is known, are already riding it. They beat England in April and Spain in February. They have Sam Kerr, a transcendent star. If no traditional power seizes this tournament, well, why can’t the co-hosts?
Not too long ago, Brazil’s women’s national team — chronically underfunded and disregarded by the male powers that be — appeared to be sliding back from the contending pack. But over the past 12 months, propelled by a blend of youth and experience, by NWSL stars and European-based ones, it has rallied. In April, on enemy turf, it beat Germany and drew England. It went toe-to-toe with the U.S. at the SheBelieves Cup in February. It has an experienced coach in Pia Sundhage, and strong vibes entering Marta’s last dance.
Canada’s long odds are puzzling. This team will look very similar to the one that toppled the U.S. and claimed Olympic gold 24 months ago. It doesn’t have the top-end talent of England or Spain; and it doesn’t have the funding or infrastructure it would like. But the players, as a unit, are cohesive and hardened. Their biggest roadblock — and perhaps a reason for the long odds — might be an extremely difficult Group B. They’ll have to work to get past both Nigeria and Ireland.
The Olympic silver medalists have largely stumbled through the two years since. A Euro 2022 semifinal appearance was misleading — it came via a forgiving quarterfinal draw, then ended with a 4-0 smackdown from England. More recently, Sweden’s last five games have gone like this: 4-0 loss to Australia, 4-1 win over China, 0-0 draw with Germany, 1-0 loss to Denmark, 3-3 draw with Norway. Inauspicious.
10. Netherlands (FIFA: 9 | +2500)
The Dutch suddenly have pedigree. But, with Vivianne Miedema struck down by an ACL injury, they lack star power.
An incredibly difficult team to assess. Japan, in many ways, looked miles better than the U.S. when the two sides met this past winter in Nashville. But the U.S. had Mal Swanson. Most other contenders also have game-breaking forwards. Japan simply does not.
The rest
12. Denmark (FIFA: 13 | +6600)
13. Norway (FIFA: 12 | +5000)
14. Ireland (FIFA: 22 | +10000)
15. Italy (FIFA: 16 | +8000)
16. China (FIFA: 14 | +20000)
17. Portugal (FIFA: 21 | +10000)
18. Colombia (FIFA: 25 | +12500)
19. Jamaica (FIFA: 43 | +30000)
20. Switzerland (FIFA: 20 | +20000)
21. South Korea (FIFA: 17 | +12500)
22. New Zealand (FIFA: 26 | +12500)
23. Nigeria (FIFA: 40 | +25000)
24. Argentina (FIFA: 28 | +20000)
25. Haiti (FIFA: 53 | +30000)
26. South Africa (FIFA: 54 | +30000)
27. Zambia (FIFA: 77 | +50000)
28. Vietnam (FIFA: 32 | +75000)
29. Costa Rica (FIFA: 36 | +40000)
30. Philippines (FIFA: 46 | +75000)
31. Panama (FIFA: 52 | +50000)
32. Morocco (FIFA: 72 | +30000)
