The United States is off to a dream start at this World Cup. The opening 4-1 win over Paraguay marked the first time the U.S. scored four goals in a World Cup match, and it was the first time the U.S. won a World Cup game by three or more goals since 1930.
The No. 9 question that has plagued the U.S. for a decade appears to be answered by Folarin Balogun, who became the second American with two goals in a World Cup game — the first since Bert Patenaude had the first World Cup hat trick in 1930, also against Paraguay.
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All those past accomplishments are now merely prologue to Friday’s game against Australia (3 p.m. ET, FOX). With a win, the U.S. would clinch a knockout-stage berth after only two games for the first time, and the U.S. could win the group if Paraguay also wins or draws.
Australia’s scenarios are similar, in that three points against the U.S. will win the group — and if Türkiye also wins, Australia would win its World Cup group for the first time.
World Cup schedule | Group schedule, results | Standings
While a draw would virtually clinch a knockout-stage berth for both teams, the upside of a win should mean that both teams should be fully motivated, with no reason to slow down at any point.
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Here are my best bets for Friday’s U.S.-Australia match:
United States over 0.5 first-half goals (-135)
I’m going back to this well even though the price isn’t as good as it was versus Paraguay, because Australia’s defense isn’t as good as Paraguay’s has been.
Again, the U.S. has played 12 straight games against 2026 World Cup teams. In nine of those games, the Americans scored in the first half, and they were unrelenting in scoring three before the break against Paraguay. Like I said previously, the eye test and the underlying numbers line up here. The U.S. has had at least seven first-half shots in all five matches this year.
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Australia is a defense-first team, as suggested by holding 29% possession and getting outshot 30-9 against Türkiye in the opener. Plus, when the U.S. played Australia last October, Mauricio Pochettino had his team flying early with 69% of the ball and six shots to Australia’s one, and the game was tied 1-1 at half.
I don’t expect anything to change here. The U.S. will be aggressive early and get a first-half goal, and if you’d rather play the U.S. on the first-half three-way money line at +115, I don’t hate that either.
Folarin Balogun 4+ shots (+105)
There’s a risk of recency bias here, but look at Balogun’s last three games. He had four shots in 45 minutes against Senegal, three shots in 72 minutes versus Germany and five shots in 72 minutes against Paraguay.
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The U.S. seems to be making a concerted effort to get him the ball, and the wing-heavy attack fits right into that plan. There’s a chance that Christian Pulisic won’t start, and that would certainly hinder the U.S. attack, but whoever moves into his wing role (Tim Weah? Gio Reyna? Malik Tillman?) is more than capable of sending in crosses to Balogun as well.
When the U.S. played Australia last October, Balogun did not start, but still had two shots in 26 minutes off the bench. Repeating that rate is wholly within his reach again, and I’ll take plus money on him reaching four shots in this game.
