Most of the favorites still remain after the first Round of 32 in World Cup history.
Sure, teams like Germany, the Netherlands and Croatia are already out of the tournament, but they weren’t among the top handful of pre-tournament favorites.
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With the Round of 16 set to begin on Saturday, here’s how the eight matchups stack up against each other. Spoiler alert: Sunday and Monday are stacked.
8. France vs. Paraguay
Saturday | 5 p.m. ET | TV: Fox
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Odds: France (-525), Paraguay (+1300), Tie (+600)
Just one look at the odds tells you why this game is at the bottom of the list. But this is a Paraguay team that’s fresh off a win over Germany. We’re not going to count them out entirely.
Kylian Mbappé enters Saturday’s game a goal behind Lionel Messi in the Golden Boot race and it won’t be surprising in the slightest if he takes the lead. France’s attack has been far and away the most lethal of anyone all tournament and the team’s front line of Mbappé, Michael Olise, Ousmane Dembélé and Bradley Barcola is far more dangerous than Germany’s attacking players.
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7. Morocco vs. Canada
Saturday | 1 p.m. ET | TV: Fox
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Odds: Morocco (-110), Canada (+320), Tie (+230)
Morocco made it to the semifinals in 2022 and is potentially a win away from a rematch of that round against France. Morocco took down the Netherlands in penalty kicks in the Round of 32 thanks to a late game-tying goal by Issa Diop. Morocco was the far more threatening team throughout that match and absolutely dominated possession, especially in the second half as the Netherlands was content to play without the ball.
Morocco figures to have most of the possession against a Canadian team that might have Alphonso Davies in the starting lineup for the first time all tournament. After missing out on the group stage entirely, Davies came on as a substitute in Canada’s Round of 32 win over South Africa.
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6. Colombia vs. Switzerland
Tuesday | 4 p.m. ET | TV: Fox
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Odds: Colombia (+130), Switzerland (+210), Tie in regulation (+225)
Switzerland is making its fourth straight Round of 16 appearance and its fifth in the last six World Cups after beating Algeria 2-0 late Thursday night. Switzerland won Group B ahead of Canada and earned the right to play its first two knockout-round games in Vancouver. That could be an advantage, as Colombia has to travel from Kansas City off the quick turnaround.
Colombia has been one of the better teams at the tournament after entering as the clear second-favorite in Group K. Colombia won the group — and denied soccer fans the chance to see Messi face off against Cristiano Ronaldo — thanks to two wins and a draw against Portugal. Friday night, Colombia had eight shots on goal in a 1-0 win over a Ghana team that didn’t put a single shot on frame.
Lionel Messi scored his seventh goal of the World Cup against Cape Verde.
(Miami Herald via Getty Images)
5. Argentina vs. Egypt
Tuesday | Noon ET | TV: Fox
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Odds: Argentina (-285), Egypt (+800), Tie in regulation (+380)
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This game gets the Messi boost as he continues his torrid goal-scoring pace. Messi scored his seventh goal of the tournament against Cape Verde, though Argentina needed two goals in extra time for a 3-2 win over the smallest nation in World Cup history.
Argentina has been prone to giving up leads in recent knockout-round games, too. Cape Verde equalized twice on Friday and Argentina needed extra time and penalty kicks after late comebacks by the Netherlands and France during the 2022 World Cup. Don’t count Egypt out if Messi scores another first-half goal.
Egypt got to the Round of 16 on penalty kicks after it beat Australia and, just like Messi, longtime Liverpool star and Egypt captain Mohamed Salah is still very capable of moments of individual brilliance.
4. United States vs. Belgium
Monday | 8 p.m. ET | TV: Fox
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Odds: Belgium (+150), United States (+170), Tie in regulation (+230)
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How will the United States play without Folarin Balogun? That’s the question that looms over this matchup following Balogun’s red card against Bosnia and Herzegovina. He’s been the engine of the United States attack and the USMNT desperately needs someone to step up in his absence.
Belgium needed a late comeback to beat Senegal 3-2 in extra time to advance. After scoring two goals late in regulation, Youri Tielemans earned a penalty in extra time to give Belgium the win.
Even without Balogun on the field, the United States should have a speed advantage over an aging Belgium team. Kevin de Bruyne was taken off at the hour mark against Senegal, and Romelu Lukaku hasn’t played a full game all tournament. With Thibaut Courtois in goal, Belgium is capable of beating nearly any opponent and seven spots ahead of the U.S. in the FIFA world rankings. That’s why it’s the slight favorite.
(Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
3. Brazil vs. Norway
Sunday | 4 p.m. ET | TV: Fox
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Odds: Brazil (-120), Norway (+300), Tie in regulation (+270)
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In any other World Cup, Erling Haaland and Vinícius Júnior would be the attacking stars of the tournament. But with Messi and Mbappé going goal-for-goal with each other, Haaland and Viní Jr. are in supporting roles.
Haaland is the epicenter of Norway’s attack and has scored five of the team’s nine goals. No other Norwegian player has more than one. He’s capable of any type of finish, but can be especially dangerous as a poacher near the goal.
Viní Jr. is carrying a larger load in attack for Brazil with Raphinha out because of a hamstring injury. Matheus Cunha has played well in Raphinha’s absence and should earn another start. After Japan was the better team in the first half against Brazil in the Round of 32, Norway may present an even bigger test for a Brazil midfield that can still look stretched out at times.
2. Spain vs. Portugal
Monday | 3 p.m. ET | TV: Fox
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Odds: Spain (-115), Portugal (+300), Tie in regulation (+250)
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Cristiano Ronaldo finally has a knockout-round goal after he scored in Portugal’s 2-1 win over Croatia. Could this game end up being his last World Cup game ever? Spain looks to be hitting its stride after an opening-game draw against DR Congo. The Euro 2024 champions cut apart Austria in a 3-0 win in the Round of 32. Spain has scored eight goals over its past three games and that’s without Lamine Yamal looking like he’s in top form.
Portugal scuffled through the group stage with two ties and a win over Uzbekistan. With Rafael Leáo in the starting lineup against Croatia, the team looked more dangerous on the attack … though there’s still the Ronaldo conundrum. Portugal players appear to show too much deference to their legendary teammate at times and it’s hard to ignore just how good the Portugal attack looked at the end of the game after Ronaldo had been subbed off.
1. Mexico vs. England
Sunday | 8 p.m. ET | TV: Fox
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Odds: England (+140), Mexico (+200), Tie in regulation (+220)
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There’s already been so much angst about this game. England has been unhappy about having to go play at over 7,000 feet above sea level at the Estadio Azteca against a Mexico team that is acclimatized to the altitude. And both teams were reportedly unhappy that FIFA was considering moving the start time up from 6 p.m. local time to noon in an attempt to avoid evening thunderstorms in Mexico City.
Mexico has won all four of its games at the World Cup so far and has been buoyed by raucous support. England fans have been in the majority for each of the Three Lions’ matches in the United States.
Oh, there’s also just a teeny tiny bit of pressure on both teams. Mexico hasn’t made the quarterfinals of the World Cup since 1986. That tournament was hosted by Mexico and was also the last time Mexico had won a knockout-round game until its 2-0 win over Ecuador. England is still searching for its first World Cup since 1966 and hasn’t finished higher than fourth since that win. Can the Three Lions get just the third win over Mexico at the Azteca?
