The World Cup final is set: Spain against Argentina. A team built on precision against a team that thrives on chaos.
These may not be the two best teams at the tournament, but both deserve to be here. Even for a numbers guy like myself, Argentina’s intangibles are impossible to deny.
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Led by Lionel Messi, whose status as at least the modern G.O.A.T. is undeniable, Argentina has trailed or been tied after 90 minutes in all four knockout matches at this World Cup, yet has won all four outright. Of Argentina’s tournament-leading 19 goals, 12 have come after the 75th minute.
In World Cup history, no other team had scored more than eight such goals in a single tournament. Having won three straight major tournaments and rolled through CONMEBOL qualifying, Argentina has unquestionable grit and belief.
Spain’s World Cup has also had a fair share of drama. After an opening scoreless draw with Cape Verde (which also took Argentina to extra time), Spain comfortably beat Saudi Arabia, muddled to a 1-0 win over Uruguay to top the group, and handled Austria in the round of 32. The next two knockout games were one-goal wins over Portugal and Belgium, both requiring late winners from sub Mikel Merino. Then came the throttling of France, as Spain conceded 10 shots and 0.3 expected goals to a team that averaged 18 shots and 2.1 non-penalty expected goals in the first six games.
Here are my best bets for Sunday’s World Cup final:
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Sunday, July 19
Given the dominance shown at times, Spain is understandably the favorite in the final, and I trust them enough to win on the 90-minute three-way line (+130).
I have more faith that Spain won’t get sucked into chaos ball than that Argentina will figure out what to do without its 62% possession from the rest of the knockout stage. Spain won’t bunker like England did.
In 174 knockout-stage minutes while leading, Spain has had 56% of the ball, including 49% against France. Spain might get more defensive, but I doubt the Spanish press will diminish much, so Argentina won’t turn into the battering ram that worked against previous knockout opponents.
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Seeing a first half similar to England-Argentina wouldn’t be surprising, though. That game was the first in recorded World Cup history (since 1966) in which no shots were taken through 30 minutes. This final could be equally cagey, at least in the first half.
Of Spain’s last four first halves, two have been scoreless and one more had only a penalty; none had more than 1.2 expected goals. None of Argentina’s four knockout-stage first halves had more than one goal or 0.9 non-penalty expected goals, and all had eight or fewer shots. I like getting good plus money (+156) on under 0.5 first-half goals.
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Finally, even with a low-scoring first half, I think each team finds a way to get a goal in 90 minutes, and I’m going with both teams to score (+115). Both have repeatedly found a way throughout the tournament.
Argentina has scored at least twice in every game, and Spain has scored twice four times, with a single goal in two other matches, getting shut out only in the opener despite outshooting Cape Verde 27-6. If you can find a plus-money price on the second half having more goals than the first half, I like that too.
Best bets:
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Spain on the 90-minute three-way line (+130)
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Both teams to score (+115)
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Under 0.5 first-half goals (+156)
