The 2026 World Cup is finally upon us, meaning I can stop making futures bets and focus on the first set of group games. For more big-picture storylines and pre-tournament plays, check out everything else I’ve written so far at Yahoo Sports.
As the tournament begins, keep the format and scenarios in mind. Both will factor in more later in the group stage, but with only three group games apiece, the possibilities are important from the first kick.
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The top two teams advance from each group, as do the top eight (of 12) third-place teams. Historically, three points and a goal difference of minus-1 or minus-2 are probably enough to get a team into the knockout stage.
How this new format affects group games is difficult to say definitively, but I suspect two things are likely to happen:
1) Top teams may open up early, going for three points that might enable them to rest players or ease up in the group finale — and/or
2) The bottom third of teams will try to keep games tight to minimize goal difference and steal points.
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With that in mind, here are a few bets that I like in the first week of the tournament:
Friday, June 12
Bosnia & Herzegovina double chance (-105) vs. Canada
Even as a host nation, Canada has a lot of question marks on the field. Moïse Bombito, one of the best center backs in the region, is unlikely to play in this match as he continues to recover from a broken leg. Cyle Larin hasn’t scored in 14 straight caps for Canada, and Jonathan David had only eight goals in 46 games for Juventus this season. Canada’s results haven’t been great this year, with draws against Iceland, Tunisia and Ireland, plus underwhelming wins over Guatemala and Uzbekistan.
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Bosnia & Herzegovina scraped through a playoff to qualify, with a similar style to Canada’s, built on playing directly and swiftly in transition. This one will probably be tight and not pretty, so I like the Bosnia & Herzegovina side of this near coin flip.
For those unfamiliar with double chance betting in soccer, this means that you’ll win your wager if the match is tied after 90 minutes or if Bosnia & Herzegovina wins.
Saturday, June 13
Morocco was the surprise semifinalist at the 2022 World Cup, and the Atlas Lions return nearly half their team from that run. They (officially) won Cup of Nations earlier this year, and they can win by defending and countering, or by controlling a game with the ball.
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Brazil has its usual attacking talent and solid defenders, but the midfield is a big question mark, with 34-year-old Casemiro likely holding things down. Morocco can overrun Brazil there and will not be intimidated by the five stars on the crest. Brazil head coach Carlo Ancelotti is a master tinkerer, but he and his squad may not be ready for Morocco’s ferocity in the opener.
Haiti double chance (+155) vs. Scotland
I’m rooting for a hot night in Foxboro to help Haiti wear down a Scotland side that will not have Napoli midfielder Billy Gilmour because of a knee injury suffered last month. Haiti isn’t especially deep either, but that matters less in the opener. The team’s defend-and-counter strategy has frustrated CONCACAF giants and is well-suited to the underdog role here against a Scotland side that can struggle to break down opponents when a goal is needed.
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Sunday, June 14
Germany -3.5 (-110) vs. Curacao
I’m not convinced this Germany team has the top gear to win this World Cup, but it has enough firepower to overwhelm debutant Curacao. Knowing that goal difference could easily decide this group, Germany will likely be unrelenting, and the lack of a classic striker won’t matter as much.
Curacao’s possession-based game shined in qualifying, but may not work as well against top opposition that controls the ball. The Blue Stars are one of the great Cinderella stories at any World Cup, and they’ll try to keep this one close — but I don’t expect their valiant efforts to work.
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Netherlands-Japan over 2.5 goals (-105)
Japan is one of my favorite sleepers, with a roster loaded with Europe-based stars despite losing a couple starters to injury. Rather than sit back defensively against a favorite, Japan should press and attack quickly, and Samurai Blue may be the more athletic team in this matchup. There should be plenty of scoring opportunities for at least one of the teams.
Netherlands seems to have a solid defense, but that’s mostly against inferior opposition. The Dutch gave up five goals in two matches against Spain in last year’s Nations League and three more in two games versus Germany before that. Japan may not quite be that that level, but isn’t terribly far off either.
This should be a fun one with scoring chances galore.
