The United States men’s national team begins its World Cup on Friday night against Paraguay at SoFi Stadium (9 p.m. ET, FOX), and the opening game’s result has long been an omen for the team’s hopes of advancing.
In 10 previous World Cups with a group stage, the U.S. has advanced all six times after winning or drawing its opener, and been eliminated in the group stage all four times after losing the opener.
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The U.S. is a -110 favorite to win the match, with Paraguay at +320 and the tie at +240 odds at sportsbooks. The United States is not only the favorite to win Group D (+150), but is an overwhelming favorite (-625) to qualify from the group and make it to the Round of 32.
The forgiving new format with eight of 12 third-place teams advancing means that the initial result is less critical, but the U.S. still wants to win the group or at least finish second to get a more favorable matchup in the knockout round.
With that in mind, here are two bets I like for the U.S. opener:
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United States over 0.5 first-half goals (+100)
The U.S. enters the tournament having played 11 consecutive games against 2026 World Cup teams. In eight of those games, the U.S. scored in the first half. That lines up with the underlying numbers and the eye test, which has seen the Americans be aggressive early on. The U.S. had 11 first-half shots against Germany and eight against each of Senegal, Portugal and Belgium this year.
More than half of the U.S. lineup will likely have been on the 2022 World Cup roster, and the team has talked about being more aggressive now that half the squad has World Cup experience. I expect the Americans to go right at Paraguay from the opening kick, creating plenty of chances for a first-half goal.
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Both teams to score (+110)
While the U.S. has attacked well against strong opposition, the defense also has not been stellar. In the aforementioned 11 games against teams in this World Cup, the U.S. has had one shutout, in September against a Japan team that didn’t have all its regular starters.
The U.S. beat Paraguay 2-1 in November, with 1.1 expected goals to Paraguay’s 0.7 on eight shots apiece. A defensive-minded Paraguay may try to keep this game tight, but an aggressive style from the U.S. should open it up. Plus Chris Richards, the best U.S. center back, probably won’t play as he continues to recover from an ankle injury.
If I had to pick a score, I’d go with a repeat of last year and a 2-1 U.S. win. I’d rather play both teams to score though, especially getting plus money.
