World Cup group stage winners and losers: Cape Verde and South Africa dream big while Uruguay and Türkiye wallow in despair

The 2026 World Cup group stage wasn’t predictable.

Sure, favorites have dominated at the top of every group, but there have been a lot of unforeseen outcomes. Who could have guessed that Cape Verde and DR Congo would get draws against Spain and Portugal, respectively? Or that so few teams would win all three of their group stage games?

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Here are our winners and losers from the group stage as the 48-team field becomes 32.

World Cup schedule | Group schedule, results | Standings

Cape Verde

The third-smallest nation to ever play at the World Cup became the smallest nation to make the knockout rounds after a 0-0 tie with Saudi Arabia. Cape Verde hasn’t won a game at this tournament so far, but it also hasn’t needed to. Three ties — including a 0-0 draw with Spain that, pardon the metaphor, put the country on the map — were enough for second place in Group H.

The reward? A game against Lionel Messi and Argentina in the Round of 32. Cape Verde is going to be a massive underdog. But the thought of playing Argentina in a World Cup elimination game is a pretty cool reality for a country of just over half a million people.

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Soccer’s stars

It’s hard to think of another group stage where all of soccer’s biggest names showed up and showed out at the same time. Messi showed why he’s still one of the most dangerous players in the world at 38 years old with his first-ever World Cup hat trick and another two goals against Austria. France‘s Kylian Mbappé stayed right behind Messi in the all-time World Cup goals race himself and looks set to pass Messi at the next World Cup — if not this one.

Brazil‘s Vinícius Júnior has carried his team’s offense, Harry Kane set the England record for goals at the World Cup with his goal against Panama, and Norway‘s Erling Haaland scored twice in his first World Cup. Even Cristiano Ronaldo scored twice against Uzbekistan to become the oldest World Cup goal scorer ever at 41.

Can the biggest names in soccer continue to thrive as the tournament field starts to get whittled down? We sure hope so.

Norway

You’re not going to find any hate for Norway’s final-game philosophy here. After rolling through World Cup qualifying, Norway was put into a group with a France team that has made back-to-back World Cup Finals and a Senegal team that’s one of the best in Europe.

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All Norway did was get a straightforward six points through its first two games to ensure a knockout round spot before the France game kicked off. Sure, Norway could have fielded a full-strength squad against France in an attempt to go for the Group I title, but France was still going to be a heavy favorite anyway.

With Haaland and nine other Norway starters on the bench, France unsurprisingly won to give Norway a game against Ivory Coast in the Round of 32. Ivory Coast is a strong side — but it’s also a winnable game for a healthy Norwegian team. Yes, Brazil likely looms in the Round of 16, but Germany would have been Norway’s likely opponent in that round had Norway won the group anyway. It was a pragmatic decision by manager Stále Solbakken and one that will be widely lauded if Norway wins a game or two in the knockout rounds.

South Africa

It was a disastrous start for South Africa. The hosts of the 2010 World Cup were drawn as Mexico‘s opponent for the opening game of the tournament and it went incredibly poorly. Mexico cruised to a 2-0 win as South Africa was down to nine men at the end of the game thanks to two red cards.

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But a draw against Czechia gave South Africa some hope, and that hope was realized with Thapelo Maseko’s 63rd-minute goal against South Korea. The 1-0 win over the Koreans put South Africa into the knockout rounds for the first time ever.

To say South Korean fans and observers were disappointed would be an understatement. South Africa’s win was so shocking to some that manager Hong Myung-bo was even asked if the whole team had food poisoning because it played so poorly.

Mexico

It’s been a dream tournament for the co-hosts. Mexico is the only country to host three World Cups, stadiums were full and raucous, and the home team is one of just two teams (so far) to win all three of its tournament games.

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The Group A win for Mexico also means that it will play at least two more games at home before a potential trip to Miami in the quarterfinals on July 11. If Mexico wins its first knockout round game, it will likely draw England in the Round of 16 in Mexico City on July 5. Don’t be surprised if England isn’t as big of a favorite as you might think. The Azteca will be rocking.

Losers

Uruguay

The inaugural World Cup winners were the prohibitive favorites to finish second to Spain in Group H. Instead, the tournament was nothing short of a disaster for Uruguay, as it failed to advance past the group stage in back-to-back World Cups for the first time ever.

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Uruguay scored just two points after it tied Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde before losing to Spain 1-0 on a goal that somehow bounced off longtime goalkeeper Fernando Muslera‘s hands and into the back of the net.

Manager Marcelo Bielsa benched Muslera at halftime and things unraveled further from there, as star midfielder Federico Valverde was subbed off before the 60th minute and Agustin Canobbio got a red card in a fit of petulance in the waning minutes of the game.

Uruguay has always been a country that has been a soccer power relative to its population. But that place in the world hierarchy is now on very tenuous footing as its players are finding their own ways home following the reported cancellation of the team’s charter flight.

Türkiye

Yes, Türkiye got a last-minute win over the United States on Thursday night. But that was of little consolation for a team that should have done a lot better.

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Türkiye was a trendy pick to win Group D ahead of the tournament. Instead, it lost to both Australia and a Paraguay team that played the second half with 10 men after Miguel Almirón’s red card. And to say that Türkiye was scattershot in those games would be an understatement.

The Turks had a whopping 62 shots in its two losses. More than half of those came outside the penalty box and just 13 were on goal. Better and smarter finishing would have gone a long way — and might have led to a longer World Cup run too.

Canada

The Canadians are set to become the first World Cup host to play a game in a different country after finishing second to Switzerland in Group B. Canada simply needed to tie the Swiss to win the group after a shellacking of Qatar. Instead, Switzerland won 2-1 to send Canada to Los Angeles on Sunday against South Africa.

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It’s a favorable draw for a second-place team. South Africa is probably one of the weakest sides remaining in the tournament. But the Group B winner’s path was tailor-made for Canada, too. Had Canada finished first in its group, it’d have a Round of 32 game in Vancouver and then a Round of 16 game there five days later before a potential trip to the United States for the quarterfinals. Now, Canada must head to Houston if it takes down South Africa.

Scotland

The Scots drew a tough Group C with Brazil, Morocco and a Haiti team that boasted players from top leagues across the world. But with eight third-place teams advancing to the knockout rounds, a Round of 32 appearance was the expectation entering the tournament.

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Scotland had every opportunity to earn that spot too. Sure, Scotland could have scored another goal or two against Haiti in a 1-0 win, but a 1-0 loss against Brazil in the final group game could have been a small enough defeat to advance to the Round of 32.

Instead, defensive miscues doomed Scotland in a 3-0 win full of self-inflicted errors. Simple mistakes led to Brazil goals and made Scotland’s goal differential enough of a liability in the third-place race that it was eliminated from the World Cup before the group stage concluded.

FIFA

How do you enjoy the World Cup while not also condemning FIFA? It’s a dilemma that faces soccer fans every four years. From water-bottle restrictions to hydration breaks to exorbitant ticket prices and rejecting a tribute to France manager Didier Deschamps’ mother, there’s hardly anything FIFA and its partners won’t do for an extra buck.

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The mandatory hydration breaks in every game could also reshape soccer as we know it. A sport known for two continuous 45-minute halves has turned into a four-quarter sport at this World Cup even if a game is being held indoors. And now that the breaks are happening in every game, no matter the conditions, it’s hard to see how mandatory hydration breaks won’t be a feature at every World Cup going forward. After all, they allow broadcasters like Fox to sell in-game commercials and make more money.