At the World Cup semifinal round, the margins within power rankings are finer than ever.
Nits have to be picked and metaphorical microscopes have to be used in deciding which team goes where. It’s almost impossible for a team to get through the group stage and three knockout rounds without being capable of winning the title.
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That’s never been more true than this year, with the top four teams in FIFA’s rankings making the semis. All are previous World Cup champions, and each has reached multiple major finals in the past decade and a half.
The matchups matter less now, since the tournament winner will have to get by two of the three remaining teams, so my power rankings cover both likelihood to win the tournament and the overall quality of the teams …
(Visionhaus via Getty Images)
France has been my top team for most of the tournament, and the 2-0 win over Morocco in the quarterfinals provided no reasons to change anything.
For the first time in the tournament, France did not have the majority of possession but still looked untroubled throughout. France consistently exploited the space behind Achraf Hakimi, which is an obvious strategy with Kylian Mbappé on the left and Hakimi as Morocco’s chief attacking-third threat. But it’s still good to see France make the simple adjustments to maximize its massive talents.
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France will have more work to do in solving Spain’s press, but it still has the highest upside of the remaining teams. I wouldn’t be shocked by any France-Spain result, but there’s a greater chance of France blowing out Spain than vice versa.
2. Spain
I can make a case for Spain in the top spot. Spain has conceded the joint-fewest goals (one) and fewest expected goals (1.8) in the tournament, along with the lowest shot quality (0.05 xG/shot), while putting up 11 goals and a tournament-leading 11.7 non-penalty expected goals. Only one team (Portugal) has had more than six shots against Spain, thanks to a suffocating press that has resulted in 56 percent of Spain’s possessions starting in the middle and attacking thirds, the highest rate among quarterfinalists.
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I don’t feel like Spain is fully clicking in attack, but the numbers are all similar to France’s, so there isn’t much between the sides. France has more world-class talent up top, but Spain is stronger overall in midfield.
The semifinal in Dallas should be great. A Spain victory would be a slight upset, but hardly surprising, and whichever team advances will be favored to lift the trophy against either England or Argentina.
3. England
England moves up a spot after grinding out a third consecutive one-goal win in the knockout stage. At some point in tournaments, the ability to win close games is as much a positive as the necessity to do so is a negative, and England has crossed that threshold for me.
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Between Thomas Tuchel’s tactics and the vast and flexible talent at his disposal, the Three Lions have shown the ability to win in different ways. They figured out Congo DR’s low block, hung on while down a man vs. Mexico and limited Erling Haaland‘s opportunities for Norway.
Argentina presents its own set of challenges, namely that Messi guy, but England’s stronger aerial presence should manifest itself at both ends. In Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham, England has two players capable of winning any match, supported by a phalanx of midfielders who can attack through the middle or down the wings.
England can win with defense or offense. France and Spain have both shown similar qualities throughout the tournament, often at a higher level, but England isn’t far behind.
4. Argentina
Argentina drops a spot after almost grinding out a third consecutive one-goal win in the knockout stage, before Lautaro Martínez scored in stoppage time for a 3-1 win over Switzerland in the quarterfinals. As with England, the ability to win close games is important, but how a team does so also matters.
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Argentina leads the tournament with 16 non-penalty goals, but ranks fourth with 10.4 expected goals and has had two extra-time games to pad the numbers. I don’t see the range of options in attack though.
I still have questions about Argentina’s ability to drive forward with width, given the lack of explosive wingers. Argentina has sent in 78 crosses through six games, tied for fewest among quarterfinalists. Crosses aren’t always the best attacking option, since about only a quarter are completed, but they’re indicative of how a team chooses (or is forced) to attack. When Argentina has had to get a goal, defenses have been able to defend narrowly while Argentina struggles to find space in the middle of the field.
Having said that, Argentina still has Lionel Messi and plenty of other talent and seemingly all the intangibles, from belief to passion. Over two more games, those things could be enough to make this ranking look silly and to make Argentina the third repeat World Cup winner. I don’t see La Albiceleste in quite the same tier as the other three, but Messi and Co. could prove me wrong. What a story that would be if they do.
