The first World Cup Round of 32 has already seen some favorites roll (France) and some go home early (Germany), setting up various types of matchups in the Round of 16.
There are Davids versus Goliaths (Paraguay-France), a host-but-not-at-home versus a continental champ (Canada-Morocco) and a superstars versus the birthplace of superstars (Erling Haaland vs Brazil). High-level knockout soccer produces thrilling drama, and these games should be no different.
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As always, remember that wagers are for regulation time only unless otherwise noted. In other words, extra time and penalty shootouts don’t count toward most bets. Having said that, some books do offer bets that explicitly include extra time (or overtime), so beware of what you’re betting.
If you want to pick a team to reach the next round, that bet is typically called “to advance” or “to qualify.” It covers all methods of getting through, whether in regulation, extra time or penalties.
Keeping that in mind, here are my thoughts on each Round-of-32 matchup as they’re confirmed.
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Saturday, July 4
Morocco vs. Canada
Morocco win (-120) vs. Canada
Both Morocco and Canada largely outplayed their Round-of-32 opponents.
Morocco needed penalties to get by Netherlands, and Canada got a stoppage-time winner to beat South Africa 1-0. Morocco outshot Netherlands 11-6, with 1.4 expected goals to 0.2 for Netherlands. Canada outshot South Africa 12-6, with 1.4 expected goals to 0.1 for South Africa.
Netherlands is, of course, a much better team than South Africa, so Morocco’s Round-of-32 match was a much more impressive performance. The Atlas Lions are a better and more proactive team than they were in reaching the 2022 semifinals, when they had under 30% possession against Spain and Portugal in the knockout stages. Holding on to the ball won’t trouble Morocco at all, after 69% possession versus Netherlands and even 49% possession against Brazil.
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Canada will likely revert to its defend-and-counter strategy, looking to find space when Achraf Hakimi and Noussair Mazraoui push forward. Les Rouges will have a puncher’s chance, though not as much as if they’d won Group B and played at home rather than in Houston.
I’m not overthinking this: I’m taking Morocco on the three-way moneyline, in a repeat of its win over Canada in the 2022 group stage.
France vs. Paraguay
France over 1.5 first half goals (+190) vs. Paraguay
The sixth-place qualifier from CONMEBOL, Paraguay is the Cinderella of the knockout stage so far, after eliminating mighty Germany on penalties in the Round of 32. Now, an even tougher challenge awaits in France.
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Les Bleus are rolling — the first team in World Cup history to score three goals in five straight games — and that somehow undersells how good the attack has looked. So the challenge is figuring out how to bet France.
I’ve settled on France over 1.5 goals in the first half. If the United States can come out and blitz Paraguay by constantly sending runners at the low block, France can do the same and more right out of the gate. France had 14 first-half shots against Norway and 15 against Sweden. This first half should look similar, and I think France has a great chance to score twice.
Sunday, July 5
Norway double chance (-108) vs. Brazil
I have to keep betting against Brazil until it works, right?
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Maybe master tinker Carlo Ancelotti has figured out how to paper over Brazil’s weak midfield. Bringing on Endrick at halftime against Japan, then later adding Gabriel Martinelli to the midfield helped give 34-year-old Casemiro cover up front, and Brazil eventually found a deserved goal to win and advance. I don’t fully believe the problems are solved after one half, though.
Japan didn’t have the top-end attacking talent to make Brazil pay more often. Norway does, in the form of Haaland and Martin Odegaard. Norway has at least two goals (and two expected goals) in all three games the pair have started at this World Cup.
Brazil’s center backs are strong but familiar for Haaland: Brazil center back Gabriel and Haaland have faced off 11 times for Manchester City and Arsenal, with Haaland scoring six goals. Haaland and Marquinhos have played against each other three times, with Haaland netting three goals. He’s a goal-scoring machine, and Norway’s midfield will have the time and space to find him as usual.
Again, I’ll fade Brazil and take Norway to at least get this to extra time.
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Mexico vs. England
Mexico-England draw (+220)
This promises to be one of the tournament’s best games, not only because it pits a red-hot host nation against one of the favorites, but because of England’s history at Estadio Azteca.
England faced Argentina there 40 years ago in the World Cup quarterfinals, and Diego Maradona delivered two of the most famous goals in soccer history: the Hand of God and the Goal of the Century.
Now England returns to Azteca to face Mexico, which is the first team to win its opening four World Cup matches without conceding since Italy in 1990. Mexico hasn’t given opponents many good chances, allowing only 32 shots in four games, with an average shot quality that’s fifth-worst in the tournament (0.07 xG/shot).
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England has also allowed 32 shots, along with the sixth-worst shot quality in the tournament, so this match figures to be low-scoring, as suggested by the under 2.5 goals line at -180.
With two stout defenses and two offenses that haven’t been totally clicking yet, plus the better team playing on the road in a hostile cauldron, I like the draw here.
