The World Cup semifinals are set, and they feature the world’s top four teams: France, Spain, England and Argentina, all of which have previously won the World Cup.
This is the third time that all four semifinalists are previous champions (1970, 1990), and it’s the first time that the top four teams in FIFA’s rankings have all made the World Cup semifinals (since rankings began in 1992). That achievement was admittedly aided by FIFA seeding the top four teams in separate quadrants for the first time, but all four still got through the group stage and an extra knockout round to be here.
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France, Spain, England and Argentina were also the four betting favorites before the tournament, with Brazil‘s title odds similar to Argentina at most books. None of the four teams have lost a game at this tournament. Only Spain and England dropped any points, each drawing against an African side (Spain vs. Cape Verde, England vs. DR Congo) despite dominating the scoring chances.
On paper, the semifinals couldn’t look any better. Here are my best bets for the two games:
Tuesday, July 14
France-Spain both teams to score (-130)
This is the match everyone has been anticipating since December’s draw, as the two tournament favorites clash in the semifinals — and it’s the toughest game in the tournament to handicap. No realistic outcome would shock me.
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France’s attack understandably gets the headlines. Kylian Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele are the first pair of teammates to score five goals each at a World Cup since title-winning Brazil’s Ronaldo and Rivaldo in 2002. They also both rank among the tournament’s top six in chances created, as France leads the tournament with 16 goals and a +14 goal difference. Spain isn’t far behind with 11 goals and 11.7 non-penalty expected goals, second most in the tournament.
At the other end, neither team has surrendered many scoring chances in the tournament. Spain has allowed one goal in six games, and France has allowed two, both in the group stage. In the knockout stage, France has allowed a total of 18 shots and 1.0 expected goals, while Spain has conceded a total of 20 shots and 1.3 expected goals.
But neither team has faced an attack as strong as the opposing one in this match. Spain won 5-4 when these teams met in last June’s Nations League semifinals, and while I don’t expect a game that wild, I think both will score in this one. The over also looks good at -105. Maybe the match plays out like a typically cagey knockout game, but I think the raw talent on the field will find goals.
Wednesday, July 15
England vs. Argentina
England win (+160) vs. Argentina
England has slogged through three one-goal wins in the knockout stage, and Argentina has almost done the same, with only a Lautaro Martínez stoppage-time goal padding the margin in a 3-1 win over Switzerland on Saturday.
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Both have generally had the better of things in all three knockout games. England has scored at least twice in each game, with 4.0 non-penalty goals to 2.5 for opponents. Argentina has scored three goals in each game with 6.3 non-penalty expected goals to 1.8 for opponents. Both xG numbers are skewed by red cards. England has a +2.1 expected goal difference at even strength, and Argentina’s drops to +2.9.
Those numbers seem to favor Argentina, but England has faced more difficult opposition and conditions. Of the six teams faced between the two, England had the two toughest opponents in Norway and Mexico (at Azteca). Switzerland would be next, with Egypt, DR Congo and Cape Verde not all that different. Argentina has also had a significant home-field advantage that will probably continue in Atlanta.
Among other reasons, including those opposition disparities, I trust England more in this match. England also has more ways to win, through stars like Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham and a more diverse attack.
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Argentina still hasn’t replaced Angel Di Maria on the wings, and the lack of wide attack (which England defends well) was glaring against Switzerland and Egypt when Argentina needed a goal. I’m not convinced Argentina is at the level of the other three semifinalists, so I’ll take England to win in 90 minutes, fully prepared for Lionel Messi to make me look foolish.
